If you didn’t spot this betting tip scam we wrote about, you were a victim of survival bias (you were only thinking of the people who made it through a selection process, and ignored those that didn’t). Don’t worry, here’s the betting tip scam explanation:
- What has happened here is the ‘tipster’ sent say 10,000s of e-mails – some of which backed all the possible outcomes in the first event. You just happened to be in the group that the correct tip was sent to the first time.
- The second time, the ‘tipster’ e-mails only the group that he had previously sent the 1st winning tip to, and divides them into new groups backing each of the outcomes in the 2nd event.
- Again and again, this process is repeated.
- Provided the ‘tipster’ started out with a sufficiently large number of recipients to begin with, to a certain number of people it will look like the ‘tipster’ got a large number of tips in a row correct from the start.
- The people who received a wrong tip at any time were no longer e-mailed, and they probably didn’t think much of it. But to the group of people who got all correct tips, it will look like the ‘tipster’ is genuine.
- The ‘tipster’ hopes that a small percentage of people who got the large number of tips in a row correct from the start will sign-up to his ‘tipping service’ for a fee (which will be nothing more than a scam).