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The ICC Champions Trophy 2025 has already delivered edge-of-the-seat action, with New Zealand and India securing dominant victories in their opening matches.
On February 19, New Zealand put on a stellar performance against Pakistan, clinching a thrilling 60-run victory. The Kiwis showcased their class with both bat and ball, outplaying the hosts in a high-stakes encounter.
Just a day later, on February 20, India stamped their authority against Bangladesh, chasing down the target with ease to win by 6 wickets. With a commanding batting display, the Men in Blue made a strong statement early in the tournament.
India secured a decisive six-wicket victory over Pakistan at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium on February 23, 2025.
Chasing a target of 242, India achieved the goal comfortably with 7.3 overs to spare. The chase was anchored by Virat Kohli’s unbeaten century, as he finished on 100 not out, marking his 51st ODI century. Shreyas Iyer also contributed significantly with a solid 56 runs.
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Once the group stages are concluded, the four semi-finalists of the Champions Trophy 2025 will be determined according to their group standings.
Here, The Sporting News takes a quick look at the qualification scenarios for both groups and the four likely semi-finalists.
What is the points system for the group stage?
Points will be awarded based on match results as follows:
- Win – 2 points
- No result/Abandoned match – 1 point
- Tie – 1 point
- Loss – 0 points
After the group stage, the two teams with the highest points in each group will qualify for the semi-finals.
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What happens if teams are tied on points?
If two or more teams finish with the same number of points, the following tie-breaking criteria will be used in order:
- Most Wins: The team with the most wins in the group stage will be ranked higher.
- Net Run Rate (NRR): If teams have an equal number of wins, the team with the better NRR will advance.
- Head-to-Head Record: If the tie remains unresolved, the team that won the match between the tied teams will be placed higher.
- Group Seeding: If all the above criteria fail to separate the teams, the original group seedings will be used to determine ranking.
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Semi-final qualification scenarios for teams in Group A: India, Pakistan, Bangladesh & New Zealand
| Team | M | W | L | N/R | Pts. | NRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +0.647 |
| New Zealand | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1.200 |
| Bangladesh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -0.408 |
| Pakistan | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1.087 |
India
The Men in Blue kicked off their Champions Trophy 2025 campaign in style with a dominant six-wicket win over Bangladesh.
India followed it up with a commanding six-wicket victory against Pakistan at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium on February 23, 2025, further strengthening their position in the tournament.
With back-to-back wins, they have all but secured a spot in the semi-finals.
Chance of qualification: 100%
Pakistan
Pakistan stumbled in their tournament opener, suffering a 60-run defeat against New Zealand in the curtain-raiser. In their second game against India, they struggled once again, failing to overcome their arch-rivals in a high-pressure encounter.
Pakistan now rely on India and Bangladesh to defeat New Zealand to keep their semi-final hopes alive.
New Zealand face Bangladesh on Monday in Rawalpindi, while India take on the Kiwis on March 2. A New Zealand win against Bangladesh will confirm their semi-final spot alongside India, eliminating Pakistan regardless of their last match result.
For Pakistan, the equation is simple—Bangladesh must upset New Zealand, and they must then defeat Bangladesh in their final group-stage match.
Chance of qualification: 0-20%
READ MORE: Dubai International Cricket Stadium: Pitch report
New Zealand
The Kiwis got off to a flying start in the Champions Trophy with a massive 60-run win over Pakistan. They now need one more win to virtually seal their place in the last-four stage.
Chance of qualification: 100%
Bangladesh
Bangladesh’s campaign got off to a rocky start as they stumbled to a 6-wicket loss against India in the tournament opener. They will now either have to win both their remaining matches and a loss could knock them out, while a win will only take them to two points. It will not take them to the semi-finals but will keep them alive.
Chance of qualification: 50%
READ MORE: Champions Trophy 2025: Schedule, latest results & points table
Semifinal qualification scenarios for teams in Group B: England, South Africa, USA, West Indies
| Team | M | W | L | N/R | Pts | NRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2.140 |
| Australia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +0.475 |
| England | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -0.475 |
| Afghanistan | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2.140 |
South Africa
South Africa kicked off their Champions Trophy 2025 campaign in style, thrashing Afghanistan by 107 runs. With this commanding victory, they sit comfortably at the top of Group B. They now need one more win to virtually seal their place in the last-four stage.
Chance of qualification: 100%
Afghanistan
Afghanistan endured a crushing 107-run defeat as South Africa in their Champions Trophy 2025 opener campaign. With this loss Afghanistan was left reeling at the bottom.
They will now either have to win both their remaining matches and a loss could knock them out, while a win will only take them to two points. It will not take them to the semi-finals but will keep them alive.
Chance of qualification: 50%
READ MORE: Top run scorers in Champions Trophy 2025
Australia
In a thrilling encounter on February 22, Australia achieved a record-breaking five-wicket victory over England in Lahore. They now need one more win to virtually seal their place in the last-four stage.
Chance of qualification: 100%
England
England put up a strong fight against Australia in their Champions Trophy 2025 encounter in Lahore but fell short as their opponents pulled off a record chase.
They will now either have to win both their remaining matches and a loss could knock them out, while a win will only take them to two points. It will not take them to the semi-finals but will keep them alive.
Chance of qualification: 50%
READ MORE: Top wicket-takers in Champions Trophy 2025
When are the Champions Trophy 2025 semi-finals?
Semi-finals 1 and 2 will be held on March 4 and 5 at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium and the Gaddafi Stadium in Lahore. The venues will be finalised as per India’s position in Group A as India will play all of their games in Dubai.
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